State Performance Assessment
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (ETA)
December 14, 2022
Minnesota Performance Results for PY 2021
About
This report is the Employment and Training Administration’s (ETA) assessment of PY 2021 WIOA performance results for Minnesota. Performance is assessed using state negotiated levels of performance, actual levels of performance, actual participant characteristics and economic conditions within a state, and estimates of the statistical adjustment models for PY 2021. Once ETA received PY 2021 participant data, model estimates were used to adjust the PY 2021 negotiated levels of performance. The adjusted levels of performance were then compared against the actual levels of performance of states to get the individual indicator scores and overall indicator and program scores.
Some things to note about this performance assessment:
- The Department of Labor evaluated the statistical adjustment model’s effectiveness in accounting for the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and found that the model sufficiently adjusted for these impacts with respect to the measures being assessed here. The model did however consistently overestimate Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit results, indicating there was variation in the state results that was not represented in the model. The Department of Labor will continue to refine the model with additional data and improved methodologies and work with the Department of Education to ensure fair and objective performance assessments.
- The Departments of Labor and Education issued a notice indicating which primary indicators of performance will be assessed for PY 2020 and PY 2021. The Department of Labor published this as Training and Employment Notice (TEN) 14-21.
- For PY 2021, the only performance indicators being formally assessed are Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit and Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit and the only programs being formally assessed are the WIOA title I (WIOA Adult, WIOA Dislocated Worker, and WIOA Youth) and and title III (Wagner-Peyser Act Employment Service) programs.
Overview
The figures here give an overview of the performance results for Minnesota in PY 2021 using the model estimates to get performance scores as discussed in About. The data table shows the summary data related to these figures.
State Performance Scores
The figures below show the performance scores for Minnesota. The color of the state map indicates the performance result for Minnesota (i.e., green for performance success and purple for performance failure).
The figure below shows the individual indicator scores for each program. The scores are calculated by dividing the actual level of performance by the adjusted level of performance (the values used in the calculation are shown in the box). A failure occurs if an individual indicator score is below 50%.
State Comparison
The figures below show how Minnesota compared to all other states in PY 2021. Distributions of actual levels of performance for each indicator for all states are on the left and distributions of individual indicator scores for all states are on the right. The flag represents Minnesota’s ranking for each distribution.
### Data Table
| Program | Indicator | Negotiated Level | Adjusted Level | Actual Level | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adult | Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit | 79.4% | 80.6% | 69.7% | 86.4% |
| Adult | Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit | $7,300 | $7,949 | $8,758 | 110.1% |
| Dislocated Worker | Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit | 83.9% | 85.1% | 82.0% | 96.3% |
| Dislocated Worker | Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit | $11,000 | $11,941 | $14,183 | 118.7% |
| Youth | Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit | 76.0% | 68.5% | 67.5% | 98.4% |
| Youth | Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit | $3,700 | $3,868 | $4,872 | 125.9% |
| Wagner-Peyser | Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit | 67.0% | 53.9% | 58.7% | 108.9% |
| Wagner-Peyser | Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit | $7,100 | $7,315 | $8,580 | 117.2% |
Adult
This is an overview of the assessment of PY 2021 WIOA performance results for Minnesota in the Adult program. The figure shows the relationship between the negotiated, adjusted, and actual levels of performance. The data table shows the effects of each variable in the statistical adjustment model.
Results
The figures below show details for the two performance indicators being assessed in PY 2021 in the Adult program.
- The negotiated level of performance is the agreed upon target level of performance for PY 2021 prior to the start of PY 2021.
- The adjusted level of performance is the result of re-calculating the negotiated level of performance once PY 2021 ends. It is calculated using model estimates, data on actual program participants in PY 2021, and data on actual economic conditions in which the participants were served.
- The adjustment factor is the total amount that the original negotiated level was adjusted.
- The actual level of performance shows the actual reported performance results for the indicator and includes the individual indicator score (i.e., the actual level divided by the adjusted level).
Model Data Tables
For each indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related data points. These data points are used to determine the adjusted level of performance. The definitions are as follows:
- Estimate0 - the pre-PY prediction for PY 2021. It is calculated using the model estimates and pre-PY values for the model variables.
- Estimate1 - the post-PY prediction for PY 2021. It is calculated using the model estimates and actual-PY values for the model variables.
- Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
- PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state in the last PY prior to negotiations.
- PY Actual - the actual data for each variable for this state in PY 2021.
- Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
- Variable Estimate1 - the amount the variable contributed to the post-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator using actual PY 2021 data. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Actual.
- Adjustment - the amount the variable contributed to the adjustment factor for the indicator. It is calculated by subtracting Variable Estimate0 from Variable Estimate1.
The Adjustment Factor and variable-specific adjustments are color coded to indicate upward adjustments (green) and downward adjustments (red). This color scheme does not indicate performance success or failure.
Performance Indicator:
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 79.86% | 81.07% | 1.21% |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | 2.1266 | 0.0105 | 2.06% | 2.23% | 0.16% | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 0.8615 | 0.0490 | 3.82% | 4.22% | 0.40% | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 0.1897 | 0.1133 | 2.13% | 2.15% | 0.02% | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -5.3312 | 0.0168 | -9.51% | -8.97% | 0.54% | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | -4.8664 | 0.0664 | -30.64% | -32.31% | -1.67% | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 3.7575 | 0.1349 | 49.86% | 50.67% | 0.81% | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 0.8235 | 0.2594 | 20.79% | 21.36% | 0.57% | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | -0.8923 | 0.0796 | -8.89% | -7.11% | 1.79% | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 4.5274 | 0.0294 | 14.21% | 13.29% | -0.93% | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 2.2149 | 0.0483 | 10.36% | 10.70% | 0.34% | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | 0.6822 | 0.0487 | 2.11% | 3.32% | 1.21% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | 0.1302 | 0.5303 | 8.12% | 6.90% | -1.22% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | -0.0308 | 0.5656 | -1.71% | -1.74% | -0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | -0.1545 | 0.1453 | -2.36% | -2.24% | 0.11% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | -0.0779 | 0.0564 | -0.60% | -0.44% | 0.16% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | -0.5993 | 0.0409 | -2.67% | -2.45% | 0.21% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 0.0815 | 0.0790 | 0.22% | 0.64% | 0.43% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | 0.0501 | 0.0339 | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -0.2333 | 0.0409 | -0.76% | -0.95% | -0.20% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | 0.0861 | 0.3724 | 2.11% | 3.21% | 1.10% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -0.1320 | 0.0056 | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | -0.1183 | 0.0296 | -0.18% | -0.35% | -0.17% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | -0.1257 | 0.3780 | -4.14% | -4.75% | -0.61% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -0.1221 | 0.3188 | -4.12% | -3.89% | 0.23% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | 0.0978 | 0.0282 | 0.20% | 0.28% | 0.08% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | -0.0773 | 0.0522 | -0.42% | -0.40% | 0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | 0.1722 | 0.1199 | 2.32% | 2.06% | -0.25% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | -0.1430 | 0.0451 | -0.76% | -0.65% | 0.11% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -0.1813 | 0.1439 | -2.48% | -2.61% | -0.12% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | 0.2901 | 0.0197 | 0.80% | 0.57% | -0.23% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | 0.0220 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -0.0306 | 0.0677 | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.09% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | -0.0942 | 0.2652 | -2.98% | -2.50% | 0.48% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | 0.0081 | 0.6601 | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | 0.0438 | 0.1128 | 0.00% | 0.49% | 0.49% | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | -0.0205 | 0.0395 | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -0.0494 | 0.0550 | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | -0.0534 | 0.0508 | -0.10% | -0.27% | -0.17% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 0.1550 | 0.0860 | 1.94% | 1.33% | -0.60% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | -0.0148 | 0.1495 | -0.26% | -0.22% | 0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | 0.1394 | 0.0141 | 0.74% | 0.20% | -0.54% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | 0.0157 | 0.2581 | 0.20% | 0.41% | 0.20% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 0.0620 | 0.4104 | 2.57% | 2.55% | -0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | 0.4886 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | -0.0002 | 303.0000 | -4.19% | -5.55% | -1.35% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | 0.1265 | 0.1890 | 2.65% | 2.39% | -0.25% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 0.1964 | 0.3893 | 7.11% | 7.65% | 0.54% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.1889 | 0.6700 | 12.90% | 12.66% | -0.24% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | -0.1842 | 0.0028 | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.05% |
Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| $7,942.70 | $8,591.61 | $648.91 |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | 24063.8444 | 0.0105 | $233 | $252 | $18.53 | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 32326.4938 | 0.0490 | $1,434 | $1,583 | $148.79 | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 39237.2625 | 0.1133 | $4,399 | $4,444 | $45.12 | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -48189.2565 | 0.0168 | -$860 | -$811 | $48.62 | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | 4074.2901 | 0.0664 | $256 | $271 | $14.02 | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 96754.4484 | 0.1349 | $12,840 | $13,048 | $208.40 | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 56163.1547 | 0.2594 | $14,180 | $14,568 | $387.10 | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | 57668.0011 | 0.0796 | $5,747 | $4,592 | -$1,154.73 | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 10767.7935 | 0.0294 | $338 | $316 | -$22.01 | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 39658.6388 | 0.0483 | $1,855 | $1,916 | $61.29 | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | -6106.3827 | 0.0487 | -$189 | -$297 | -$108.05 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | -2841.0668 | 0.5789 | -$1,869.34 | -$1,644.83 | $224.51 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | -862.0930 | 0.5668 | -$476.03 | -$488.64 | -$12.61 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | -3144.2089 | 0.1377 | -$492.14 | -$432.81 | $59.33 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | -5290.3216 | 0.0364 | -$391.02 | -$192.76 | $198.26 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | -6059.0062 | 0.0223 | -$254.65 | -$134.92 | $119.74 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 232.4254 | 0.0931 | $4.72 | $21.64 | $16.93 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -2692.4326 | 0.0385 | -$81.94 | -$103.56 | -$21.61 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -4413.8578 | 0.0425 | -$115.14 | -$187.63 | -$72.49 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -2324.8593 | 0.3138 | -$545.84 | -$729.46 | -$183.62 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -6352.7320 | 0.0081 | -$36.83 | -$51.44 | -$14.61 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | 6983.7945 | 0.0324 | $91.09 | $226.20 | $135.10 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | 362.0217 | 0.3968 | $119.10 | $143.64 | $24.54 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | 826.8902 | 0.3360 | $286.42 | $277.86 | -$8.55 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | -1324.3050 | 0.0223 | -$30.71 | -$29.49 | $1.22 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | 5643.1853 | 0.0486 | $318.96 | $274.16 | -$44.80 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | 4052.0797 | 0.1093 | $510.91 | $442.94 | -$67.97 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | 8539.9365 | 0.0445 | $408.43 | $380.32 | -$28.11 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -989.2237 | 0.1397 | -$124.73 | -$138.17 | -$13.44 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | -1349.3089 | 0.0202 | -$37.15 | -$27.31 | $9.84 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | -205.4928 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -4419.8922 | 0.0506 | -$115.30 | -$223.68 | -$108.38 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | 145.7630 | 0.2955 | $50.07 | $43.08 | -$6.99 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | -332.4067 | 0.6822 | -$219.20 | -$226.76 | -$7.57 | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | 840.8641 | 0.1174 | $0.00 | $98.72 | $98.72 | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | -5911.8510 | 0.0263 | -$128.52 | -$155.58 | -$27.06 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | 107.5299 | 0.0466 | $3.74 | $5.01 | $1.27 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | -446.4262 | 0.0486 | -$9.06 | -$21.69 | -$12.63 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 2013.3031 | 0.0749 | $242.18 | $150.79 | -$91.39 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | 685.8891 | 0.1336 | $121.27 | $91.64 | -$29.64 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | -2567.3504 | 0.0121 | -$133.95 | -$31.18 | $102.77 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | 2011.8227 | 0.2206 | $224.51 | $443.90 | $219.40 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 912.9138 | 0.4069 | $385.01 | $371.45 | -$13.56 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | 15112.5289 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 3.2489 | 318.5000 | $734.26 | $1,034.78 | $300.53 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | 3623.2012 | 0.2206 | $792.90 | $799.45 | $6.55 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 965.0801 | 0.4433 | $369.25 | $427.84 | $58.59 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 807.6246 | 0.7551 | $592.26 | $609.81 | $17.55 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.3653 | 5133.0000 | $1,702.96 | $1,874.99 | $172.03 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | -1947.9185 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Dislocated Worker
This is an overview of the assessment of PY 2021 WIOA performance results for Minnesota in the Dislocated Worker program. The figure shows the relationship between the negotiated, adjusted, and actual levels of performance. The data table shows the effects of each variable in the statistical adjustment model.
Results
The figures below show details for the two performance indicators being assessed in PY 2021 in the Dislocated Worker program.
- The negotiated level of performance is the agreed upon target level of performance for PY 2021 prior to the start of PY 2021.
- The adjusted level of performance is the result of re-calculating the negotiated level of performance once PY 2021 ends. It is calculated using model estimates, data on actual program participants in PY 2021, and data on actual economic conditions in which the participants were served.
- The adjustment factor is the total amount that the original negotiated level was adjusted.
- The actual level of performance shows the actual reported performance results for the indicator and includes the individual indicator score (i.e., the actual level divided by the adjusted level).
Model Data Tables
For each indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the adjusted level of performance. The definitions of the table columns are as follows:
- Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
- PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state in the last PY prior to negotiations.
- PY Actual - the actual data for each variable for this state in PY 2021.
- Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
- Estimate1 - the amount the variable contributed to the post-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator using actual PY 2021 data. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Actual.
- Adjustment - the amount the variable contributed to the adjustment factor for the indicator. It is calculated by subtracting Estimate0 from Estimate1.
Performance Indicator:
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 86.90% | 88.11% | 1.21% |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | -2.0224 | 0.0105 | -1.96% | -2.12% | -0.16% | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | -0.4670 | 0.0490 | -2.07% | -2.29% | -0.21% | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | -1.7064 | 0.1133 | -19.13% | -19.33% | -0.20% | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -9.8998 | 0.0168 | -17.66% | -16.66% | 1.00% | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | -6.2744 | 0.0664 | -39.50% | -41.66% | -2.16% | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | -3.6027 | 0.1349 | -47.81% | -48.59% | -0.78% | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | -1.9946 | 0.2594 | -50.36% | -51.74% | -1.37% | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | -2.8519 | 0.0796 | -28.42% | -22.71% | 5.71% | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 3.0428 | 0.0294 | 9.55% | 8.93% | -0.62% | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 1.2295 | 0.0483 | 5.75% | 5.94% | 0.19% | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | 0.4118 | 0.0487 | 1.27% | 2.00% | 0.73% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | 0.0596 | 0.4470 | 2.73% | 2.66% | -0.07% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | 0.0189 | 0.3910 | 0.62% | 0.74% | 0.12% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | -0.0169 | 0.3120 | -0.57% | -0.53% | 0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | 0.1060 | 0.1530 | 2.12% | 1.62% | -0.50% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | -0.1905 | 0.1170 | -2.24% | -2.23% | 0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 0.1185 | 0.0470 | 0.08% | 0.56% | 0.48% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -0.0983 | 0.0090 | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -0.2910 | 0.0380 | -1.05% | -1.11% | -0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -0.0358 | 0.0930 | -0.24% | -0.33% | -0.09% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | 0.8792 | 0.0040 | 0.29% | 0.35% | 0.06% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | -0.1947 | 0.0140 | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | -0.0259 | 0.2300 | -0.57% | -0.60% | -0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -0.1942 | 0.2740 | -5.03% | -5.32% | -0.29% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | -0.1799 | 0.0100 | -0.30% | -0.18% | 0.12% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | -0.0907 | 0.0680 | -0.54% | -0.62% | -0.08% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | -0.1447 | 0.2720 | -4.01% | -3.94% | 0.07% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | -0.1210 | 0.1120 | -1.96% | -1.36% | 0.61% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -0.0527 | 0.0450 | -0.32% | -0.24% | 0.08% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | 0.0056 | 0.0510 | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | -0.0512 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -0.2521 | 0.0340 | -0.41% | -0.86% | -0.44% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | 0.0446 | 0.0810 | 0.43% | 0.36% | -0.07% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | -0.0518 | 0.1080 | -0.71% | -0.56% | 0.15% | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | -0.5301 | 0.0060 | 0.00% | -0.32% | -0.32% | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | 0.8134 | 0.0070 | 0.94% | 0.57% | -0.37% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -0.1259 | 0.0050 | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | 0.0306 | 0.0060 | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 0.3775 | 0.0260 | 1.65% | 0.98% | -0.66% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | 0.0208 | 0.6020 | 1.56% | 1.25% | -0.30% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | 0.0737 | 0.0210 | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.09% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | 0.0574 | 0.1070 | 0.17% | 0.61% | 0.44% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 0.0496 | 0.2640 | 1.59% | 1.31% | -0.28% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | -0.4938 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 0.0000 | 347.0000 | 0.18% | 0.28% | 0.10% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | -0.0254 | 0.0270 | -0.10% | -0.07% | 0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 0.1061 | 0.1300 | 0.68% | 1.38% | 0.70% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.1131 | 0.9290 | 10.81% | 10.51% | -0.30% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | -0.2274 | 0.0040 | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.00% |
Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| $12,783 | $13,724 | $940.79 |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | -27241.5941 | 0.0105 | -$264 | -$285 | -$20.98 | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 36651.6742 | 0.0490 | $1,626 | $1,794 | $168.70 | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 47186.5858 | 0.1133 | $5,290 | $5,344 | $54.26 | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -260263.7041 | 0.0168 | -$4,643 | -$4,380 | $262.61 | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | 85893.1957 | 0.0664 | $5,407 | $5,703 | $295.60 | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 95022.1320 | 0.1349 | $12,610 | $12,815 | $204.67 | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 51172.3083 | 0.2594 | $12,920 | $13,273 | $352.70 | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | 43978.6506 | 0.0796 | $4,383 | $3,502 | -$880.62 | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | -4546.6888 | 0.0294 | -$143 | -$133 | $9.29 | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 22271.2780 | 0.0483 | $1,042 | $1,076 | $34.42 | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | -5795.6816 | 0.0487 | -$179 | -$282 | -$102.56 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | -1901.3415 | 0.4585 | -$877.82 | -$871.83 | $5.98 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | 1115.5154 | 0.4024 | $377.82 | $448.93 | $71.11 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | -125.9873 | 0.3354 | -$42.91 | -$42.25 | $0.66 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | -2126.3785 | 0.1512 | -$418.44 | -$321.55 | $96.89 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | -2492.9312 | 0.0854 | -$261.79 | -$212.81 | $48.98 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | -857.7550 | 0.0512 | -$4.87 | -$43.93 | -$39.06 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -3522.2138 | 0.0073 | -$49.98 | -$25.77 | $24.21 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -4684.9713 | 0.0354 | -$164.00 | -$165.69 | -$1.69 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -1536.6027 | 0.0622 | -$94.49 | -$95.57 | -$1.08 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -3269.1753 | 0.0037 | -$9.28 | -$11.96 | -$2.68 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | -3712.0594 | 0.0122 | -$45.65 | -$45.27 | $0.39 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | -1400.0970 | 0.2305 | -$303.33 | -$322.71 | -$19.37 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -1902.9048 | 0.2756 | -$496.88 | -$524.46 | -$27.58 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | 83.4151 | 0.0122 | $1.34 | $1.02 | -$0.32 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | 1526.2402 | 0.0707 | $95.30 | $107.95 | $12.65 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | 1169.4179 | 0.2756 | $323.06 | $322.30 | -$0.75 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | 2155.0497 | 0.1085 | $344.56 | $233.90 | -$110.66 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | 279.5931 | 0.0402 | $14.55 | $11.25 | -$3.30 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | 1445.8344 | 0.0500 | $75.23 | $72.29 | -$2.94 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | -403.3425 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -2976.1328 | 0.0220 | -$42.23 | -$65.33 | -$23.10 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | -784.4348 | 0.0768 | -$77.18 | -$60.27 | $16.91 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | -538.7097 | 0.0927 | -$68.80 | -$49.93 | $18.87 | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | -4222.3011 | 0.0073 | $0.00 | -$30.89 | -$30.89 | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | -2105.8014 | 0.0037 | -$21.91 | -$7.70 | $14.21 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | 470.0451 | 0.0037 | $2.67 | $1.72 | -$0.95 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | 7893.8250 | 0.0061 | $37.34 | $48.13 | $10.79 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 1805.9783 | 0.0244 | $71.76 | $44.05 | -$27.71 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | 68.6962 | 0.5866 | $50.69 | $40.30 | -$10.40 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | -2493.0132 | 0.0146 | -$80.19 | -$36.48 | $43.71 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | 1348.3682 | 0.0854 | $39.55 | $115.10 | $75.56 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 176.1628 | 0.2598 | $55.33 | $45.76 | -$9.57 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | 6660.1906 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 2.2222 | 335.5000 | $471.10 | $745.54 | $274.44 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | 3787.5103 | 0.0268 | $136.16 | $101.62 | -$34.55 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 1700.7794 | 0.1500 | $125.51 | $255.12 | $129.61 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 21.0817 | 0.9549 | $20.20 | $20.13 | -$0.07 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.0917 | 14295.6800 | $1,245.93 | $1,310.36 | $64.43 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | 192.7564 | 0.0037 | $0.73 | $0.71 | -$0.02 |
Youth
This is an overview of the assessment of PY 2021 WIOA performance results for Minnesota in the Youth program. The figure shows the relationship between the negotiated, adjusted, and actual levels of performance. The data table shows the effects of each variable in the statistical adjustment model.
Results
The figures below show details for the two performance indicators being assessed in PY 2021 in the Youth program.
- The negotiated level of performance is the agreed upon target level of performance for PY 2021 prior to the start of PY 2021.
- The adjusted level of performance is the result of re-calculating the negotiated level of performance once PY 2021 ends. It is calculated using model estimates, data on actual program participants in PY 2021, and data on actual economic conditions in which the participants were served.
- The adjustment factor is the total amount that the original negotiated level was adjusted.
- The actual level of performance shows the actual reported performance results for the indicator and includes the individual indicator score (i.e., the actual level divided by the adjusted level).
Model Data Tables
For each indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the adjusted level of performance. The definitions of the table columns are as follows:
- Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
- PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state in the last PY prior to negotiations.
- PY Actual - the actual data for each variable for this state in PY 2021.
- Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
- Estimate1 - the amount the variable contributed to the post-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator using actual PY 2021 data. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Actual.
- Adjustment - the amount the variable contributed to the adjustment factor for the indicator. It is calculated by subtracting Estimate0 from Estimate1.
Performance Indicator:
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 77.89% | 70.41% | -7.48% |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | -6.7872 | 0.0105 | -6.58% | -7.10% | -0.52% | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | -1.8800 | 0.0490 | -8.34% | -9.20% | -0.87% | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | -1.3602 | 0.1133 | -15.25% | -15.41% | -0.16% | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -7.2974 | 0.0168 | -13.02% | -12.28% | 0.74% | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | -2.1367 | 0.0664 | -13.45% | -14.19% | -0.74% | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | -2.5564 | 0.1349 | -33.92% | -34.47% | -0.55% | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 0.0247 | 0.2594 | 0.62% | 0.64% | 0.02% | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | -0.3944 | 0.0796 | -3.93% | -3.14% | 0.79% | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | -10.7940 | 0.0294 | -33.89% | -31.68% | 2.21% | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 3.2993 | 0.0483 | 15.43% | 15.94% | 0.51% | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | -1.4872 | 0.0487 | -4.60% | -7.24% | -2.63% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | 0.0595 | 0.5438 | 3.25% | 3.23% | -0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 14 to 15 | 0.1226 | 0.0298 | 0.75% | 0.37% | -0.38% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 16 to 17 | -0.1436 | 0.1983 | -2.84% | -2.85% | -0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 18 to 19 | -0.2054 | 0.3301 | -6.92% | -6.78% | 0.14% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 20 to 21 | 0.0105 | 0.2223 | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | -0.0628 | 0.1059 | -0.34% | -0.66% | -0.33% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -0.3341 | 0.0683 | -3.09% | -2.28% | 0.81% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | 0.1989 | 0.0664 | 1.03% | 1.32% | 0.29% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -0.0414 | 0.4572 | -1.47% | -1.89% | -0.42% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -0.5342 | 0.0019 | -0.22% | -0.10% | 0.12% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | 0.1508 | 0.0529 | 0.86% | 0.80% | -0.06% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | 0.0691 | 0.4495 | 3.06% | 3.11% | 0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -0.3127 | 0.0616 | -1.51% | -1.93% | -0.41% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | 1.1469 | 0.0029 | 0.36% | 0.33% | -0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree | 0.4935 | 0.0087 | 0.16% | 0.43% | 0.27% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -0.0469 | 0.3109 | -1.72% | -1.46% | 0.26% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | 0.0148 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -0.1392 | 0.0895 | -0.75% | -1.25% | -0.50% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | 0.0375 | 0.9384 | 3.56% | 3.52% | -0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | -0.0341 | 0.0953 | 0.00% | -0.33% | -0.33% | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | 0.0743 | 0.0539 | 0.35% | 0.40% | 0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -0.1510 | 0.0510 | -0.27% | -0.77% | -0.50% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | -0.2008 | 0.2502 | -3.28% | -5.02% | -1.75% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 0.0635 | 0.1270 | 1.04% | 0.81% | -0.23% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | -0.0433 | 0.0106 | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | -0.0867 | 0.3773 | 0.00% | -3.27% | -3.27% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 0.0442 | 0.3503 | 1.70% | 1.55% | -0.15% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | 0.7660 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Pell Grant Recipient | 0.0368 | 0.0828 | 0.21% | 0.30% | 0.10% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 0.0000 | 510.0000 | -1.46% | -2.05% | -0.58% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth | -0.0716 | 0.1838 | -1.68% | -1.32% | 0.36% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Youth Needing Additional Assistance | 0.0005 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | 0.0356 | 0.2945 | 1.12% | 1.05% | -0.07% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry | 0.0349 | 0.7267 | 2.39% | 2.54% | 0.14% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Foster Care Youth | -0.0100 | 0.0568 | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 0.2748 | 0.2474 | 6.59% | 6.80% | 0.20% |
Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| $3,930.47 | $4,098.37 | $167.90 |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | -3172.1958 | 0.0105 | -$30.75 | -$33.20 | -$2.44 | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 10994.4772 | 0.0490 | $487.64 | $538.25 | $50.61 | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 21559.9593 | 0.1133 | $2,417.09 | $2,441.88 | $24.79 | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -55465.6493 | 0.0168 | -$989.47 | -$933.50 | $55.97 | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | 44805.1055 | 0.0664 | $2,820.66 | $2,974.85 | $154.19 | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 14219.0161 | 0.1349 | $1,886.93 | $1,917.55 | $30.63 | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 20372.0444 | 0.2594 | $5,143.65 | $5,284.07 | $140.41 | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | 7088.2477 | 0.0796 | $706.41 | $564.48 | -$141.93 | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 57026.8505 | 0.0294 | $1,790.33 | $1,673.79 | -$116.54 | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 43573.5139 | 0.0483 | $2,038.16 | $2,105.49 | $67.34 | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | -10090.2192 | 0.0487 | -$312.37 | -$490.91 | -$178.55 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | -1877.4943 | 0.5447 | -$1,086.03 | -$1,022.59 | $63.44 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 14 to 15 | -92.3013 | 0.0351 | -$4.91 | -$3.24 | $1.67 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 16 to 17 | -1309.0587 | 0.2035 | -$237.52 | -$266.41 | -$28.89 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 18 to 19 | -1066.4762 | 0.3514 | -$357.92 | -$374.75 | -$16.83 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 20 to 21 | 649.4931 | 0.2050 | $140.89 | $133.13 | -$7.75 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 1913.4585 | 0.1040 | $109.64 | $198.91 | $89.27 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -184.4720 | 0.0673 | -$15.35 | -$12.42 | $2.93 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | 649.7122 | 0.0703 | $35.45 | $45.66 | $10.21 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -886.3703 | 0.4129 | -$314.40 | -$365.97 | -$51.57 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -3388.4232 | 0.0015 | -$9.25 | -$4.96 | $4.28 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | 933.1134 | 0.0469 | $47.10 | $43.72 | -$3.38 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | 1383.9408 | 0.4641 | $653.27 | $642.33 | -$10.94 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -828.1913 | 0.0703 | -$48.58 | -$58.20 | -$9.62 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | 173.0955 | 0.0029 | $0.47 | $0.51 | $0.03 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree | 6672.3330 | 0.0102 | $27.31 | $68.38 | $41.08 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -495.1811 | 0.3221 | -$170.24 | -$159.50 | $10.74 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services | -27.8731 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | 2456.3023 | 0.0878 | $137.39 | $215.78 | $78.39 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | -305.7985 | 0.9253 | -$288.69 | -$282.96 | $5.73 | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | -539.6509 | 0.0747 | $0.00 | -$40.30 | -$40.30 | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | -1658.7545 | 0.0542 | -$67.89 | -$89.86 | -$21.97 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -184.0786 | 0.0439 | -$2.76 | -$8.09 | -$5.32 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | 983.9044 | 0.2211 | $149.00 | $217.52 | $68.53 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | -1284.6596 | 0.1069 | -$194.54 | -$137.31 | $57.23 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | -462.5838 | 0.0073 | -$5.68 | -$3.39 | $2.29 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | -630.2664 | 0.3338 | $0.00 | -$210.40 | -$210.40 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | 161.1750 | 0.3748 | $63.33 | $60.41 | -$2.92 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | 2823.2240 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Pell Grant Recipient | 104.1843 | 0.0966 | $6.96 | $10.07 | $3.10 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 0.5942 | 498.0000 | $217.48 | $295.91 | $78.43 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth | 854.5128 | 0.1611 | $201.68 | $137.62 | -$64.06 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Youth Needing Additional Assistance | -4.3341 | 0.0000 | -$0.01 | $0.00 | $0.01 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | 546.1994 | 0.3089 | $161.70 | $168.74 | $7.04 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry | -283.4775 | 0.7057 | -$194.53 | -$200.05 | -$5.52 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Foster Care Youth | 1009.8293 | 0.0600 | $39.95 | $60.62 | $20.67 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 613.7857 | 0.3060 | $169.98 | $187.82 | $17.84 |
Wagner-Peyser
This is an overview of the assessment of PY 2021 WIOA performance results for Minnesota in the Wagner-Peyser program. The figure shows the relationship between the negotiated, adjusted, and actual levels of performance. The data table shows the effects of each variable in the statistical adjustment model.
Results
The figures below show details for the two performance indicators being assessed in PY 2021 in the Wagner-Peyser program.
- The negotiated level of performance is the agreed upon target level of performance for PY 2021 prior to the start of PY 2021.
- The adjusted level of performance is the result of re-calculating the negotiated level of performance once PY 2021 ends. It is calculated using model estimates, data on actual program participants in PY 2021, and data on actual economic conditions in which the participants were served.
- The adjustment factor is the total amount that the original negotiated level was adjusted.
- The actual level of performance shows the actual reported performance results for the indicator and includes the individual indicator score (i.e., the actual level divided by the adjusted level).
Model Data Tables
For each indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the adjusted level of performance. The definitions of the table columns are as follows:
- Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
- PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state in the last PY prior to negotiations.
- PY Actual - the actual data for each variable for this state in PY 2021.
- Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
- Estimate1 - the amount the variable contributed to the post-PY 2021 predicted target for this indicator using actual PY 2021 data. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Actual.
- Adjustment - the amount the variable contributed to the adjustment factor for the indicator. It is calculated by subtracting Estimate0 from Estimate1.
Performance Indicator:
Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| 69.59% | 56.45% | -13.14% |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | 1.6856 | 0.0105 | 1.63% | 1.76% | 0.13% | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 1.5411 | 0.0490 | 6.84% | 7.54% | 0.71% | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 1.0127 | 0.1133 | 11.35% | 11.47% | 0.12% | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | -0.4595 | 0.0168 | -0.82% | -0.77% | 0.05% | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | 2.9649 | 0.0664 | 18.66% | 19.69% | 1.02% | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 0.9431 | 0.1349 | 12.51% | 12.72% | 0.20% | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 1.2831 | 0.2594 | 32.40% | 33.28% | 0.88% | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | 0.5919 | 0.0796 | 5.90% | 4.71% | -1.19% | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 3.9021 | 0.0294 | 12.25% | 11.45% | -0.80% | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 1.7006 | 0.0483 | 7.95% | 8.22% | 0.26% | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | 0.3440 | 0.0487 | 1.06% | 1.67% | 0.61% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | 0.0801 | 0.4816 | 3.49% | 3.86% | 0.37% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | 0.1086 | 0.3715 | 4.77% | 4.03% | -0.74% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | -0.0860 | 0.2201 | -1.99% | -1.89% | 0.10% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | -0.0070 | 0.1452 | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.01% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | -0.0629 | 0.1842 | -0.80% | -1.16% | -0.36% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 0.2326 | 0.0254 | 1.08% | 0.59% | -0.49% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -0.3062 | 0.0271 | -1.17% | -0.83% | 0.34% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -0.2354 | 0.0416 | -0.72% | -0.98% | -0.25% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -0.1609 | 0.1164 | -2.36% | -1.87% | 0.49% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | 0.9703 | 0.0035 | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | 0.2471 | 0.0280 | 0.67% | 0.69% | 0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | -0.0172 | 0.1764 | -0.45% | -0.30% | 0.14% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | 0.0386 | 0.1872 | 0.78% | 0.72% | -0.05% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | -0.0422 | 0.0719 | -0.40% | -0.30% | 0.09% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | 0.3496 | 0.1080 | 3.36% | 3.78% | 0.41% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | -0.6768 | 0.3002 | -13.54% | -20.32% | -6.77% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | -0.5246 | 0.1157 | -3.68% | -6.07% | -2.39% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -0.3557 | 0.0760 | -2.22% | -2.70% | -0.48% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | 0.2170 | 0.0543 | 1.49% | 1.18% | -0.31% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | -0.0185 | 0.0001 | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | 0.2027 | 0.0000 | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | 0.0926 | 0.0453 | 0.05% | 0.42% | 0.36% | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | -0.5680 | 0.0058 | -0.27% | -0.33% | -0.06% | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | 1.0873 | 0.0040 | 0.47% | 0.43% | -0.03% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -0.1163 | 0.0131 | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | -0.0667 | 0.0164 | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.02% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 0.1850 | 0.0045 | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | -0.0385 | 0.5345 | -2.70% | -2.06% | 0.65% | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | -0.0897 | 0.3551 | -2.39% | -3.18% | -0.80% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | -0.1541 | 0.0582 | -0.33% | -0.90% | -0.57% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | -0.1026 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | -9.8950 | 0.0000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | -0.0003 | 9.0000 | -0.85% | -0.25% | 0.61% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | -0.0903 | 0.0787 | -0.67% | -0.71% | -0.04% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 0.0865 | 0.2399 | 1.57% | 2.07% | 0.51% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.3174 | 0.6226 | 25.98% | 19.76% | -6.22% | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | -0.2304 | 0.0016 | -0.33% | -0.04% | 0.29% |
Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit
| Estimate0 (Pre-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Estimate1 (Post-PY 2021 Predicted Outcome) | Adjustment Factor |
|---|---|---|
| $7,649.50 | $7,864.90 | $215.41 |
| Variable Type | Variable | Coefficient | PY Prior | PY Actual | Variable Estimate0 | Variable Estimate1 | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Condition | Natural Resources Employment | 37057.6079 | 0.0105 | $359 | $388 | $28.53 | |
| Economic Condition | Construction Employment | 42760.7710 | 0.0490 | $1,897 | $2,093 | $196.82 | |
| Economic Condition | Manufacturing Employment | 47700.8708 | 0.1133 | $5,348 | $5,403 | $54.85 | |
| Economic Condition | Information Services Employment | 11314.8086 | 0.0168 | $202 | $190 | -$11.42 | |
| Economic Condition | Financial Services Employment | 62614.6797 | 0.0664 | $3,942 | $4,157 | $215.48 | |
| Economic Condition | Professional and Business Services Employment | 67885.3402 | 0.1349 | $9,009 | $9,155 | $146.22 | |
| Economic Condition | Educational or Health Care Employment | 51491.7764 | 0.2594 | $13,001 | $13,356 | $354.90 | |
| Economic Condition | Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment | 43018.4305 | 0.0796 | $4,287 | $3,426 | -$861.39 | |
| Economic Condition | Other Services Employment | 41629.7443 | 0.0294 | $1,307 | $1,222 | -$85.08 | |
| Economic Condition | Public Administration | 51356.2602 | 0.0483 | $2,402 | $2,482 | $79.36 | |
| Economic Condition | Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) | -5089.3910 | 0.0487 | -$158 | -$248 | -$90.06 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Female | -2774.8460 | 0.4836 | -$1,220.38 | -$1,341.80 | -$121.42 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 25 to 44 | 1526.7709 | 0.4010 | $703.84 | $612.24 | -$91.60 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 45 to 54 | 223.6212 | 0.2309 | $53.67 | $51.63 | -$2.04 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 55 to 59 | 1725.9534 | 0.1407 | $214.08 | $242.83 | $28.75 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Age 60 or more | 3989.3863 | 0.1386 | $387.00 | $552.73 | $165.73 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Hispanic Ethnicity | 1506.2736 | 0.0278 | $73.20 | $41.81 | -$31.39 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: American Indian | -5567.8497 | 0.0260 | -$188.71 | -$144.60 | $44.10 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Asian | -1285.7589 | 0.0415 | -$41.06 | -$53.31 | -$12.25 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Black | -2926.8319 | 0.1195 | -$454.17 | -$349.73 | $104.44 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander | -2473.0352 | 0.0030 | -$7.16 | -$7.37 | -$0.21 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Race: Multiple | 10678.0968 | 0.0274 | $290.62 | $292.59 | $1.97 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency | -1763.8797 | 0.1712 | -$461.04 | -$301.97 | $159.08 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Some College | -2177.4526 | 0.1832 | -$440.35 | -$398.97 | $41.38 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree | -2180.3190 | 0.0710 | -$203.36 | -$154.81 | $48.56 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree | 2095.5471 | 0.1076 | $209.74 | $225.43 | $15.69 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree | 72.8128 | 0.3186 | $14.81 | $23.20 | $8.39 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Program | -5012.8376 | 0.1135 | -$344.00 | -$569.12 | -$225.12 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual with a Disability | -5107.0692 | 0.0645 | -$260.59 | -$329.15 | -$68.57 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Veteran | -913.8967 | 0.0547 | -$59.05 | -$49.97 | $9.07 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Limited English Proficiency | 1563.7512 | 0.0000 | $10.95 | $0.00 | -$10.95 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Single Parent | 660.1018 | 0.0000 | $0.89 | $0.00 | -$0.89 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Low Income | 634.4633 | 0.0419 | $2.07 | $26.61 | $24.53 | |
| Participant Characteristic | TANF Recipient | 1657.8393 | 0.0061 | $7.12 | $10.07 | $2.95 | |
| Participant Characteristic | SSI or SSDI Recipient | 10874.7587 | 0.0031 | $27.92 | $33.68 | $5.76 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Other Public Assistance Recipient | -1174.5793 | 0.0124 | -$10.80 | -$14.55 | -$3.75 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Homeless | -3513.0948 | 0.0149 | -$39.20 | -$52.32 | -$13.12 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Individual who was Incarcerated | 1920.7679 | 0.0038 | $0.18 | $7.32 | $7.14 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Claimant | 454.7967 | 0.6014 | $337.39 | $273.51 | -$63.88 | |
| Participant Characteristic | UI Exhaustee | 247.9889 | 0.2828 | $55.85 | $70.14 | $14.29 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Long-term Unemployed | 771.2849 | 0.0508 | $12.96 | $39.14 | $26.18 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Supportive Services Recipient | -636.3855 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Needs-related Payments | -21804.7067 | 0.0000 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Median Days in Program | 0.8717 | 9.0000 | $28.77 | $7.85 | -$20.92 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Educational Status at Program Entry | -1155.2072 | 0.0846 | -$91.69 | -$97.71 | -$6.02 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Employment Status at Program Entry | 456.1906 | 0.2957 | $93.77 | $134.89 | $41.12 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | -219.4792 | 0.7669 | -$197.35 | -$168.31 | $29.04 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation | 0.2612 | 8964.4697 | $2,375.28 | $2,341.07 | -$34.21 | |
| Participant Characteristic | Displaced Homemaker | -10834.3804 | 0.0011 | -$126.95 | -$11.62 | $115.34 |